Tesla Towards $100 Trillion: An Analysis of Elon Musk’s Vision

Elon Musk has just reacted to a staggering prediction: Tesla could reach a $100 trillion valuation. To put this figure into perspective, Tesla’s current market capitalization stands at $1.54 trillion. This would mean a 65-fold increase in its value.

His response? A cautious “not impossible.” No triumphant declaration, but an acknowledgment that this vision, however wild, is not entirely unrealistic.

This projection comes from Cathie Wood, the visionary behind ARK Invest, who is betting on an unprecedented convergence of technologies developed within the Musk ecosystem. I will share my analysis of this imagination-defying projection, examining the factual arguments and the titanic challenges ahead.

$100 Trillion: A Figure That Defies Imagination

To understand the scale of this prediction, let’s compare it with the current global economy. The 10 largest companies on the planet are together worth approximately $26 trillion combined.

This list includes NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Meta, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, and… Tesla itself. A $100 trillion valuation would therefore represent a value four times greater than these 10 giants combined.

The context of this statement is important. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest laid out her vision of an unprecedented technological convergence. Elon Musk’s response was not a “yes, certainly,” but a nuanced “not impossible” – a crucial distinction.

The gap to bridge is colossal: a 65-fold increase in current valuation would require an unprecedented transformation in the history of modern capitalism.

Cathie Wood’s Argument: The Convergence of Proprietary Data

Tesla and “the Language of the Road”

The first pillar of Wood’s thesis rests on the exclusive proprietary data collected by Tesla. The company has accumulated billions of miles of real-world driving data.

The Model Y: world’s best-selling vehicle for 3 consecutive years is not just a commercial achievement. It is primarily a massive fleet that continuously feeds the learning of autonomous driving systems.

This competitive advantage in autonomous driving data would be directly linked to the Robotaxi program, which could radically transform Tesla’s business model.

A Unique Data Ecosystem

But Wood goes further. She identifies a technological convergence across the entire Musk ecosystem:

• Neuralink generates multiomic data via the brain-machine interface
• X (formerly Twitter) collects massive behavioral and social data
• SpaceX and Starlink accumulate spatial and telecom data

The central thesis: this proprietary data creates an insurmountable gap for the competition. I find the data argument interesting, but monetization on this astronomical scale remains to be proven.

The Convergence Strategy Begins to Materialize

What was speculation yesterday is becoming reality today. Recent movements confirm that this convergence is no longer theoretical.

Tesla made a massive investment in xAI. Even more spectacularly, the SpaceX-xAI merger was recently announced, creating an entity valued at approximately $1.25 trillion. xAI alone was valued at $250 billion.

The integrated ecosystem is taking shape before our eyes:

• Tesla provides mobility data and robotics manufacturing expertise
• SpaceX provides space infrastructure and Starlink
• xAI develops cutting-edge artificial intelligence
• Neuralink works on the human-machine interface
• X centralizes social data and the network

Convergence is no longer a hypothesis; it is genuinely being built before our eyes with concrete capital and legal structures.

Tesla Beyond Automotive: Growth Bets

Robotaxi and autonomous driving

The Robotaxi program is entering its concrete testing phase. This project represents a paradigm shift: moving from selling vehicles to providing mobility services.

The potential business model offers much higher margins than a traditional car manufacturer. A fleet of autonomous taxis generates recurring revenue with fewer fixed assets.

Optimus and the Self-Building Factory

The Optimus humanoid robot is progressing rapidly. Beyond the product itself, Musk evokes the concept of Von Neumann machines: robots capable of manufacturing other robots.

Applications extend from manufacturing to logistics and services. Tesla is also developing its Dojo supercomputer for artificial intelligence and continues its diversification into energy with Solar, Powerwall, and Megapack.

As a Tesla owner, I can monitor stock prices on my Tesla screen and witness this diversification in real-time – a daily reminder that Tesla extends far beyond the automotive sector.

SpaceX: From the Roadster Feat to Space Dominance

On February 6, 2018, an event made headlines: the historic launch of the Falcon Heavy with a Roadster launched into space. At the time, Tesla was worth between $55 and $60 billion.

Today, the valuation has increased by more than 25 times. And SpaceX has realized its ambitions.

The numbers speak for themselves: Falcon 9 has completed over 600 successful missions. The teams have achieved 560 successful booster landings, demonstrating the economic viability of reusability. Starlink now has 9 million Starlink users worldwide.

SpaceX now dominates the commercial orbital launch market. Future ambitions include Starship for Martian colonization, a potential Starlink IPO, and the construction of a global space infrastructure.

I still remember the surreal images of that Roadster orbiting in space in 2018. Who would have bet on such a trajectory back then?

The Colossal Challenges of a 65-Fold Valuation Increase

Let’s acknowledge the extraordinary achievements. Going from $55 billion to $1.54 trillion between 2018 and today is already a historic feat.

But going from $1.54 trillion to $100 trillion represents a challenge of an entirely different nature. Regulatory obstacles are multiplying: autonomous driving, space regulation, AI oversight. Each jurisdiction imposes its own constraints.

Geopolitical tensions and protectionism are intensifying. Competition, particularly from China, is not standing still. Above all, this 65-fold increase would require execution over several decades without major error.

Historical perspective tempers enthusiasm. Few companies have maintained exponential growth for 20 years or more. The convergence envisioned by Cathie Wood requires all technological bets to succeed simultaneously.

Elon Musk’s position remains cautious: “not impossible” does not mean “probable.” The ecosystem is indeed being built, technologies are progressing, but monetization on the $100 trillion scale remains to be demonstrated.

I remain fascinated by this vision, while keeping my feet on the ground. History will tell if this convergence can truly create a company four times larger than the 10 current giants combined. The coming years will be decisive in validating or invalidating this audacious hypothesis.