The Model Y dominates California despite Elon Musk

The Tesla Model Y has just achieved a rare feat in the auto industry: 110,120 registrations in California for 2025, putting it at the top of sales for the 4th consecutive year. An impressive figure, especially at a time when Tesla is facing media controversies and an overall decline in its sales.

But behind these impressive numbers lies a more nuanced reality. Between commercial domination and gradual erosion, I’m going to break down these data points, which say a lot about Tesla’s current situation in its historic market.

The Model Y literally crushes the competition in California

With 110,120 registrations, the Model Y doesn’t just win: it absolutely dominates the California market. To put that into perspective, the Toyota RAV4—still second in the ranking—posted 65,604 units sold.

That’s a gap of over 50,000 units. In other words, Tesla could lose nearly half its sales and would still remain at the top of the rankings.

This historic performance over 4 consecutive years shows just how deeply the California car market has changed. The Model Y is no longer a niche electric vehicle for early adopters: it has become an everyday vehicle, on a par with a family sedan or a traditional gas-powered SUV.

If you’re wondering what explains such enthusiasm, I invite you to find out why the Model Y appeals so much to California buyers, thanks to its design and features.

A downward trend that can’t be ignored

The numbers tell a different story

Despite this dominance, a closer look reveals a worrying trend. Model Y sales in California are on a downward trajectory:

• 2023: 132,636 units
• 2024: 128,923 units
• 2025: 110,120 units

That’s a 17% drop over two years—a gradual but steady erosion that deserves attention.

More broadly, Tesla’s total sales in California have fallen significantly: from 238,589 units in 2023 to 179,656 in 2025, a 25% drop. The Model 3, fourth in the ranking with 53,989 sales, isn’t escaping this downward trend either.

The tax credit: a hard blow for Tesla

One key factor is the end of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles. This tax break was a major purchase argument for California buyers, directly affecting their purchasing power.

While some competitors continue to benefit from local incentives or other programs, Tesla finds itself in a less favorable pricing position. So the question is: is this a temporary decline linked to those tax measures, or a deeper structural downturn?

The data suggest a significant short-term effect, but not only that. Other factors are also at play.

The “Musk factor”: when the CEO becomes a commercial drag

I won’t lie: Elon Musk’s image is weighing on sales—it’s a documented fact. In 2025, anti-Musk protests and even Tesla vandalism were reported in California, a state that has historically been favorable to the brand.

Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA), publicly mentioned a deterioration in the Tesla brand image, directly linked to the CEO’s controversial statements.

The paradox is fascinating: despite the sales drop and this tense climate, the Model Y keeps its crushing lead. That shows the product’s resilience in the face of communication turbulence.

Some potential buyers now hesitate for “non-technical” reasons: they like the vehicle but feel uncomfortable with the manufacturer’s image. It’s a rare phenomenon in the auto industry, where the product usually outweighs the leader’s personality.

Tesla is betting everything on the Model Y and the Model 3

Faced with these challenges, Tesla is making a major strategic repositioning. The company announced that Tesla will drop the Tesla Model S and Model X after Q2 2025, focusing its efforts on high-volume models.

This decision is neither a failure nor giving up: it’s a rational adaptation to the market. Tesla is evolving from a niche premium manufacturer into a mass-market player able to compete with Toyota, Volkswagen, or Ford in the best-selling segments.

Persistent rumors point to a Model Y refresh that could reignite buyer interest with aesthetic and technological improvements. In addition, Tesla is preparing its $25,000 compact model to make electric vehicles even more mainstream, a strategy that could reshuffle the deck in 2026.

What these California numbers teach us (even in France)

You may be wondering what these California data change for us—French owners or future buyers. More than you might think.

US market dynamics often ripple into Europe after a few months. The product’s resilience seen in California—despite the controversies—can also be found in France, where the Model Y remains one of the best-selling electric vehicles.

The Model Y’s inherent strengths remain undeniable: real-world range, performance, an unmatched Supercharger network, and continuous software updates. Over the long term, these technical elements outweigh media turbulence.

That said, differences exist: French local incentives remain more favorable, and perceptions of Elon Musk vary depending on cultural context. The French market may therefore follow a slightly different path, but the underlying trends remain similar.

The main takeaway? The product always ends up outweighing the person—even if the road can be more complicated than expected.

According to automotive industry data, this downward trend is affecting the entire California EV market, not just Tesla.

In the end, these 110,120 Model Y sales in California tell a double story: that of unquestionable commercial dominance, but also that of a brand navigating choppier waters than before. The decline is real and worrying, but the unfavorable context (end of incentives, controversies) largely explains this erosion.

2026 will be decisive: with new models, improved technologies, and perhaps a calmer media climate, Tesla could bounce back. Or keep declining despite staying in first place. What about you—do these numbers surprise you?