Tesla-SpaceX-xAI Merger: Dan Ives Anticipates Within 18 Months

On February 2, 2026, an announcement shook the Musk ecosystem: SpaceX officially acquired xAI to form a $1.25 trillion entity. This colossal operation immediately reignites a debate I thought was buried: could Tesla join this constellation within 12 to 18 months? This is, in any case, what Dan Ives, the star analyst at Wedbush Securities, anticipates.

As a Tesla owner and a keen observer of the Musk universe, I ask myself a simple question: what does this mega-merger concretely mean for us, shareholders and users? Let’s analyze this merger pragmatically, between dizzying technological ambition and a much more down-to-earth geopolitical reality.

SpaceX and xAI Merge: Birth of a $1.25 Trillion Giant

The official announcement on February 2, 2026 marks a historic turning point: SpaceX absorbs xAI in a deal valued at approximately $1.25 trillion. To put this figure into perspective, xAI was valued at around 230 billion at the end of 2025, while SpaceX reached 800 billion.

Elon Musk’s vision is clear: to create complete vertical integration between artificial intelligence and space infrastructure. On one side, xAI brings Grok (its AI model) and massive computing capabilities. On the other, SpaceX provides Starlink, its reusable launchers, and its unparalleled orbital expertise.

The synergy seems obvious on paper: deploy orbital computing centers to drastically reduce AI’s energy costs. But between vision and economic reality, there’s often a chasm that even SpaceX’s rockets struggle to cross.

Dan Ives Anticipates Tesla’s Integration Within 12 to 18 Months

The Position of Wedbush’s Star Analyst

Dan Ives, a renowned analyst who has followed Tesla for years, doesn’t mince words: “The probability of a tripartite merger is significantly increasing.” His timeframe? 12 to 18 months to see Tesla officially join the SpaceX-xAI ecosystem.

His logic holds up: Tesla has already invested $2 billion in xAI, information confirmed during Q4/FY 2025. The potential synergies are numerous: AI to improve Full Self-Driving autonomous driving, optimized energy management for Powerwall and Megapack, streamlining processes in Gigafactories.

However, it’s worth remembering that Ives is generally optimistic about Tesla. His past predictions should be contextualized with this perspective.

Market and Shareholder Reaction

Unsurprisingly, these announcements generate expected volatility in TSLA’s stock price. Moreover, if you’re a shareholder like me, you can track the TSLA stock price directly from your Tesla screen to monitor these fluctuations in real-time.

The questions are legitimate: dilution risk? real value creation? The main obstacle remains the potential conflict of interest, with Musk CEO of all three entities simultaneously. Some institutional investors might be hesitant about this increased structural complexity.

My personal analysis? I’m torn between technological excitement and governance concerns. This merger could create long-term value, but the path will be chaotic.

Space AI: Elon Musk’s Futuristic (and Risky) Vision

Solar-Powered Orbital Data Centers

Musk’s projection is bold: space will become the least expensive environment for AI computing within 2 to 3 years. The theoretical advantages are appealing: unlimited solar energy (no day-night cycle in orbit), natural cooling in the vacuum of space, reduced latency for global communications via Starlink.

The project is immense: deploy up to 1 million satellites to create a true network of orbital data centers. A request has also been filed with the FCC and remains under review.

But scientific skepticism is justified: launch costs are still high despite reusability, complex maintenance, the growing problem of space debris, and radiation exposure. Technological audacity must not obscure these concrete challenges.

Major Regulatory and Geopolitical Obstacles

US Government Contracts: A Strategic Lock

SpaceX holds major contracts with the DoD (Department of Defense) and NASA, representing several billion dollars annually. Simultaneously, xAI is developing AI technologies considered sensitive for US national security.

A merger with Tesla, a publicly traded company with mandatory financial transparency, could require CFIUS authorizations (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States). This committee has already blocked or heavily regulated other mergers for national security reasons.

Tesla’s Chinese Exposure: The Achilles’ Heel

Here’s the major problem: Tesla operates the Gigafactory Shanghai, which represents a significant portion of its global production. The company is also building a Megapack factory there. If you want to understand the stakes of Teslas manufactured in China and the associated geopolitical challenges, this dimension is crucial.

In the current context of US-China tensions over sensitive technologies (AI, space, semiconductors), US authorities could strongly oppose a merger giving a China-exposed entity access to strategic space and AI technologies.

My observation? This Chinese exposure is a commercial asset for Tesla, but could become an insurmountable obstacle for the mega-merger. This is the paradox of technological globalization in the era of geopolitical blocs.

What Place for Tesla (and Us, Owners) in This Constellation?

The potential AI-automotive-energy synergies are real: xAI’s AI could significantly improve Full Self-Driving and reduce interventions, energetically optimize Superchargers via predictive algorithms, deploy Starlink infrastructure for connectivity in white zones, or even create smart micro-grids combining Megapack and spatial computing.

But the risks for shareholders are just as concrete: potential dilution if the merger happens via stock exchange, governance complexity with three intertwined entities, diversion of resources (cash, talent) towards space projects rather than towards Tesla’s future automotive projects like the $25,000 compact car.

My personal point of view? As a Tesla owner, I value simplicity: a reliable car, an efficient charging network, updates that improve the experience. These mega-mergers create short-term uncertainty. In the long term, if space AI truly reduces computing costs, all Tesla products could benefit.

But let’s be clear: Dan Ives himself speaks of “probability,” not certainty. Regulatory obstacles are considerable, and industry analysts regularly remind us that many mega-mergers fail for reasons of competition or national security.

The SpaceX-xAI merger is confirmed; Tesla could follow within 12 to 18 months according to Ives’ predictions. However, this timeframe remains hypothetical given the geopolitical and regulatory barriers. In the meantime, Tesla continues its automotive and energy development, which remains my priority as a user and shareholder.

Time will tell if this constellation of companies will become reality, or remain a vision too ambitious for our time.