Tesla launches Optimus V4: 10 million robots/year in Texas

Elon Musk has just confirmed on X the installation of a monumental production line for Optimus V4 at Giga Texas. The figure is staggering: 10 million units per year. While Fremont is testing Optimus V3 with an annual capacity of one million units, Texas is preparing for a radical change in scale.

This announcement comes as Full Self-Driving surpasses one million active subscribers, marking a spectacular acceleration in the adoption of this controversial technology.

Between immense ambition and long-term vision, I’ll break down these announcements that are reshaping Tesla’s future for you. But are these goals truly achievable, or is it just another distant promise?

Giga Texas becomes the global epicenter for Optimus production

Official confirmation: Elon Musk announced it directly on X, no rumor this time. The strategy is unfolding in two distinct phases.

On one hand, Fremont serves as a learning laboratory with Optimus V3, with a capacity of one million units per year. On the other hand, Giga Texas is preparing for massive industrial deployment with Optimus V4 and its staggering goal: 10 million units per year.

Tesla applies its proven method: test small, industrialize big. This is exactly what happened with Tesla has already proven its ability to industrialize rapidly in China, where the ramp-up of the Shanghai Gigafactory surprised the entire automotive industry.

But here’s the legitimate question: going from 1 to 10 million is multiplying production by 10. A challenge that even Tesla has never attempted on this scale for a completely new product. For context, the company took 20 years to produce 7 million vehicles in total.

Fortunately, Giga Texas has the necessary space and energy capacity to support such an ambition. The site spans several hundred hectares, and unlike Fremont, which is constrained in the San Francisco Bay Area, it can expand almost indefinitely.

Optimus V4, Musk’s universal humanoid robot

The key concept here is “general purpose”: Optimus is not designed to specialize in a single task, but to adapt to a multitude of situations.

Its advanced learning capabilities include:

• Learning by observation: the robot watches a human perform a task and reproduces it
• Learning by direct human demonstration
• Learning via video through generative AI

Musk states that Optimus will have “a significant impact on US GDP“. The target applications are vast: industry, logistics, personal assistance, but also domestic use eventually.

My analysis? Skepticism persists in the robotics industry, and it’s not unfounded. Current demonstrations remain controlled and scripted. The gap between a functional prototype and mass production of 10 million units is colossal.

Furthermore, as with the Roadster, whose production is still awaited, there is sometimes a gap between announcements and the reality of the industrial timeline.

Tesla also aims for the $25,000 compact car that should be sold worldwide, demonstrating this same ambition for democratization through mass production. But pursuing multiple fronts also carries execution risks.

FSD surges: 1.1 million active subscribers

Historic milestone: Tesla has surpassed 1.1 million active FSD subscriptions in Q4 2025. The growth is impressive: +38% in one year, and a 2.75x increase since 2021.

Here is the detailed evolution showing constant acceleration:

• 2021: 400,000 subscribers
• 2022 : 500 000 (+25%)
• 2023 : 600 000 (+20%)
• 2024 : 800 000 (+33%)
• 2025: 1.1 million (+38%)

But here is the major strategic shift: after February 14, 2025, FSD will no longer be available for outright purchase. It will be subscription-only, currently billed at $99 per month.

My review? This shift to an “all-subscription” model guarantees predictable recurring revenue for Tesla, an economic model that Wall Street loves. But it frustrates some owners who preferred the one-time purchase at $15,000, even if the price was high.

And that’s not all: Musk has confirmed an announced price increase for the monthly fee. It’s hard to say if it will be $119, $129, or more, but the increase is confirmed.

A financial strategy that raises questions

Behind these figures lies an underlying goal rarely mentioned: reaching 10 million FSD subscribers. This is one of the conditions to unlock an additional tranche of Elon Musk’s compensation, linked to his performance targets.

But here’s the apparent paradox that leaves me perplexed:

• Goal: multiply the number of subscribers by 9 (from 1.1 to 10 million)
• Means: increase the subscription price
• Question: how to attract massively while increasing prices?

Musk mentions a future valuation potentially reaching $100,000 per vehicle once full autonomy is achieved and regulatory approved. A figure that makes shareholders dream.

But let’s look at the fleet reality: even with over 7 million Teslas in circulation, not all are equipped with FSD-compatible hardware. Going from 1.1 to 10 million subscribers requires a 100%+ penetration rate of the compatible fleet, which seems mathematically complex in the short term.

My analysis? The economic equation remains unclear. Either the price ultimately remains contained to favor volume, or the goal of 10 million subscribers is a 5-10 year horizon, not short-term.

Bonus – SpaceX-xAI Merger: Musk confirms (almost)

To the question of a rapprochement between SpaceX and xAI, Musk simply replied “Yeah” on X. Laconic, but revealing.

The gigantic valuations at stake:

• SpaceX: $800 billion
• xAI: $230 billion

The potential synergies are fascinating: space data centers powered by Starlink, Grok AI integrated into Tesla and SpaceX systems, in-orbit data processing to bypass terrestrial limitations.

The link with Tesla is direct: the AI developed by xAI could accelerate the development of FSD and Optimus, creating a unique integrated technological ecosystem in the world.

My feeling? Another typical Muskian bold announcement, but the technological synergies are real and documented in sectoral analyses that explore the impact of robotics and AI on modern industry.

Between the Optimus V4 line at 10 million units and the goal of 10 million FSD subscribers, Tesla displays stratospheric ambitions. Do these figures represent a 10-year vision or short-term goals? I admire the audacity, but I remain cautious about the timelines.

And you, who drive a Tesla, do you use FSD? What do you really think of it in everyday life? Share your experience in the comments, I look forward to reading you.