Tesla soon to be absorbed by SpaceX-xAI? The unified Musk empire

This week, Elon Musk reached a major milestone: SpaceX and xAI are now one. And if you own a Tesla, this news directly concerns you.

Why? Because according to Dan Ives, Wedbush’s star analyst, Tesla could join this merger within the next 12 to 18 months. I know, it sounds crazy. But when you look at the numbers and potential synergies, this scenario becomes strangely credible.

I’m going to explain why your Tesla could soon be part of an unprecedented tech empire, by deciphering the financial, technological, and timeline stakes of this convergence.

SpaceX and xAI seal their alliance: the first step towards the X empire

The official announcement came this week in February 2026: the SpaceX-xAI merger is confirmed. This major strategic rapprochement doesn’t come out of nowhere.

Last November, Elon Musk already stated: “My companies are converging in a surprising way.” This sentence now makes perfect sense.

The stated goals are ambitious:

• Create orbital data centers (the FCC has approved the request for 1 million satellites)
• Merge SpaceX’s spatial AI with xAI’s software AI and its Grok assistant
• Transform the Starlink infrastructure (9,500 satellites, 9 million users) into Grok’s backbone

The first concrete signal? Tesla just announced a $2 billion investment in xAI. Proof that bridges between these companies already exist.

As a Tesla owner, this merger concerns you: the AI powering FSD and the one powering Grok will now share their data via Starlink.

Why Tesla would be the next piece of the puzzle

Dan Ives’ analysis: a 12 to 18-month timeline

The Wedbush analyst doesn’t mince words: the integration of Tesla could happen within the next 12 to 18 months. On Polymarket, the probability of an announcement before June 30, 2026, fluctuates between 12 and 24%.

It’s low, but real. And most importantly, Musk has never publicly denied this hypothesis.

The technological synergies that change everything

Here’s the core of the matter:

• Tesla = physical AI (Robotaxi, Optimus, FSD)
• xAI = software AI (Grok, language models)
• SpaceX = global infrastructure (Starlink, global connectivity)

Imagine the concrete applications:

• A Robotaxi powered by Starlink with permanent connectivity, even in dead zones
• An Optimus robot controlled by Grok (conversational AI + robotics)
• FSD trained on orbital data centers (spatial distributed computing)

Tesla is no longer limited to Model 3/Y/S/X: between Robotaxi, Optimus, and Tesla’s product expansion strategy, the company is positioning itself on all fronts of mobility and robotics.

Imagine your Autopilot boosted by AI trained in space, with native Starlink connectivity. This is exactly what this merger could bring.

The financial arguments in favor of a merger

Musk’s capital rebalancing is a strong argument. Currently, he holds 13% of Tesla (according to compensation tranches) versus 43% of SpaceX.

Post-merger, his combined stake would approach 26%, stabilizing his control over the whole.

The pooling of CapEx also changes the game:

• Tesla: Dojo (AI supercomputer), Robotaxi factories, Optimus production
• xAI: high cash burn for model training
• SpaceX: $15-16 billion in revenue in 2025, $8 billion in profit (50-80% from Starlink)

The synergies are obvious: Starlink could finance the AI ambitions of Tesla and xAI.

Another advantage: the public market access strategy. Tesla is already listed with a high valuation and immediate liquidity. This would avoid an IPO for SpaceX (complexity, dilution, loss of control) while gaining access to public capital.

For us Tesla shareholders, this could mean indirect access to SpaceX without going through the private market. If this prospect interests you, you can also monitor Tesla’s stock price directly from your screen to track the impact of these announcements in real time.

The calendar scenarios: before June 2026 or horizon 2027?

The short hypothesis (before June 30, 2026)

According to Polymarket, the probability remains low (12-24%). An announcement before June 2026 would require a major catalyst or a regulatory surprise.

The current context does not favor this option.

The long hypothesis (2027+)

This timeline seems more realistic. It would allow waiting for several key milestones:

• Commercial launch of Robotaxi (mid-2026 at the earliest)
• Series production of Optimus Gen 2
• Repeated Starship successes (orbital flights, heavy payloads)
• Regulatory clarity on orbital data centers

Possible triggers include a partial SpaceX IPO (established public valuation), favorable AI/space regulation, or pressure from Tesla shareholders to diversify.

My intuition? 2027 is more realistic. Musk will wait for Robotaxi and Optimus to prove their worth before playing this card.

The risks that make investors hesitate

The valuation gap raises questions. Tesla shows “stretched” multiples (high P/E, valuation based on future promises), while SpaceX and xAI remain private with speculative valuations and little transparency.

The risk of dilution for current shareholders is real.

Execution complexity is also a concern:

• Orbital data centers: unproven technology at this scale
• Interconnected projects (Robotaxi, Optimus, Starship): each can derail
• Total dependence on Musk: concentration of risk on a single person

Regulations represent another major obstacle: antitrust (concentration of technological power), FCC authorizations for satellites, certifications for Robotaxi.

Let’s be honest: this merger could also turn into a gas factory. Musk’s pharaonic projects are sometimes 5 years behind schedule.

Bullish vision: a vertical AI-space-robotics giant

But what if it works? We’re talking about an acceleration towards a multi-planetary civilization:

• Tesla: electric terrestrial transport + robotics
• SpaceX: space transport + orbital infrastructure
• xAI: unified artificial intelligence

The vertical integration would be total: from terrestrial manufacturing (Gigafactories) to space data centers, from energy (Powerwall/Megapack) to connectivity (Starlink), from autonomous mobility (FSD) to humanoid robotics (Optimus).

No competitor has this range of technologies. The synergies would be impossible to replicate, with astronomical barriers to entry.

For us Tesla owners, this would mean a vehicle connected to a global ecosystem (space, AI, energy), over-the-air updates powered by AI trained in space, and potentially boosted residual value (platform vs. simple car).

If this merger materializes, your Tesla will no longer be just a car: it will be a mobile terminal of a global AI-space network. This is consistent with Tesla’s immense technological ambitions, always focused on exceeding market standards.

The SpaceX-xAI merger represents the first domino to fall. The next 12 to 18 months will be decisive: keep an eye on Robotaxi and Optimus milestones, as well as quarterly statements.

However, industry analysts remind us that this type of merger remains subject to a strict regulatory framework, which could extend the timeline.

For my part, I’m keeping an eye on FCC filings and quarterly statements. I’ll keep you updated.

One thing is certain: whether this merger happens or not, Tesla’s future is no longer limited to automobiles. And that’s exactly why I continue to believe in it.